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"I'll remain in this seat by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, adding that if our discussion proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into Number 10 for a follow-up chat in the coming year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever break for prime ministers. Shortly before our chat started, Sir Keir had been speaking with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to understand exactly what had happened in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our interview, which was much longer than usual, had concluded, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year commences, Sir Keir seems to have had a degree of a refresh. Perhaps even just a little downtime with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This appeared to have left him in a more positive mood than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a awful political year for him.

But are he and his allies kidding themselves if they think his fortunes are poised to improve?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the PM is that many of his colleagues think he's ineffective at his job. Several of them would rather gamble and remove him in 2026.

But Starmer was having none of it when we spoke on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he insisted he'd be "judged at the next election", arguing no one would strip his electoral mandate from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 may be for Labour to change its leader.

"We are in the struggle of our generation and I intend to guide the party," he said.

The Spring Test

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be assessed long before then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to contend, maybe too much, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may not want to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no situation under which he would resign, should a his MPs ran against him for the job, should those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He tried to account for his low poll ratings by saying the voters was reasonably impatient for things to change. He sought to assure the interviewer, and the nation, that this year would be a change.

The economy would improve in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the government put in place during their first rocky year began to take effect.

• He vowed to shut asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the caveat that it wasn't a done deal, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now discussing how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His central argument is that soon the country will "see an improvement".

Political Challenges

The prime minister may have communicated with renewed vitality than I've seen from him for a while – less tense, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of facing pressure from various quarters for a bolder strategy, with increased political vision, more vigour, more pace and more immediacy, his arguments were repeated ones.

When he finds himself in considerable political difficulty, is a different approach required a different script?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been struggling in the polls for an extended period, has everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not just because governing is hard, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM expressed regret that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when comments he'd previously made – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "procedures" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is facing clear political risks as the year gets going. His friendship with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's strikes on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over many years, the thought he would be at ease with this kind of intervention seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He told me he was a "longtime advocate of international law" but the public "simply haven't got the complete details at the moment".

Opponents demanded criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is expected to face increased demands to give an explicit view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also consistently been simmering pressure in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the consequences of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's doing that, but his new specific commitment to align more closely with the single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will probably trigger howls that he is breaking his promise never to try to overturn the results that followed Brexit.

A commitment to cosy up to more of the single market will delight some on his backbenches, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to