Daily Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The typical count of everyday murders each month in the country has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government statistics. However, security specialists have advised that murder figures might not indicate improved countrywide stability.

Marked Drop in Daily Figures

There was an average of almost 55 killings a day in last November as opposed to roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we have seen in these months is remarkably notable,” the President remarked, explaining that in November the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state said: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main elements of the President's security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Greater cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Limitations

However, security researchers cautioned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of peace was misleading. This is especially true in light of the increase in different crimes such as abductions.

“It would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was additionally an issue because it might mask periods when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Employing the daily average renders spikes of violent crime less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious offenses, according to government figures. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and across the nation to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, from a social perspective it’s very debatable,” the analyst concluded.