Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.