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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest surprise.

However the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans rising in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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